Five days to Saturday’s presidential and National Assembly elections, fears of insecurity in some parts of the country and the credibility of the electoral process may affect the turnout of voters, Daily Trust reports.
Despite a steady rise in the number of registered voters in Nigeria’s seven election cycles, since 1999, the country has witnessed a gradual decline in voter turnout.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had registered a total of 93, 469, 008 voters across the country’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), the highest since 1999. The figure showed a 61.3 per cent rise from the 57.9 million voters who registered for the country’s election in 1999.
Experts, however, said that despite the high registration numbers, the security situation and trust would affect the turnout of voters in this year’s polls.
IN THR SOUTHEAST
Late last year, the convoy of the senator representing Anambra South senatorial zone, Dr Ifeanyi Ubah was attacked and left many casualties. The attack, which took place at Enugwu Ukwu, Njikoka local council of Anambra state, claimed the lives of security officials attached to the senator as well as his aides.
The attackers were said to have ambushed his convoy and continued to pummel it with bullets until they were sure it had been reduced to rubbles. His attackers were said to have moved in and allegedly collected the arms of those they killed.
When they left, the blood of those hit by the bullets were seen freely flowing on the tarred Enugwu Ukwu road with several shattered vehicles. Residents who got to the scene of the attack early had expressed bewilderment at the superior firing power of the hoodlums that shattered the quietude of the sprawling area. They had feared the bravery in confronting a convoy of such nature fitted with several security officials and yet made a breakthrough.
Like Ohakim, Ubah had said after he survived the attack: “If not for the Bullet Proof Jeep I was riding in, I would have been dead by now. We were passing Enugwu-ukwu junction when they hit us front and back from all sides and as I speak, one of my Special Assistants is dead and about seven security operatives were hit by the assassins bullets.” Uba’s attackers have remained unknown since then.
Also in Anambra state last year, the member representing Aguata 11 State Constituency, Okechukwu Okoye was kidnapped alongside his driver. Okoye’s head was later found dumped inside a carton without other parts of his body.
Since last year, the quietude of the southeast region had come under serious challenge, as gunmen have intensified attacks. Residents no longer live with ease. Travels have reduced to the barest minimum. The level of return of Igbo people to their places of origin in the last Christmas and new year celebrations were strong indications that all is not well in the zone.
Posh cars are rarely seen on the highways, as they have become prime targets of gunmen. From Enugu to Ebonyi, Abia to Imo and Anambra, the situation is similar. It is strange for a day to pass without stories of killings or kidnaps. Nightlife is gradually fading away. Businesses are shutting down. Business operators now close early for fear of attacks. Although the highways are littered with security checkpoints manned by soldiers and policemen, the security situation has continued to deteriorate. Meetings of political parties have been attacked. In some communities, people are now forced to pay some criminal gangs if they must hold their events.
Attempts by non-state actors to seize initiatives are creating unbearable pains for innocent residents. A recent case is the December 30, 2022 plundering and burning of houses and other property of residents of Aku-Okigwe in Okigwe local council of Imo state by a horde of military personnel and other security agents who invaded the community in search of an abducted female army officer. The army officer was abducted on Monday 26, December 2022 while allegedly visiting her grandmother. A video of her abduction and dastardly treatment was widely circulated online by her captors.
In an attempt to rescue the army officer, security agents had descended on the community, shooting sporadically and destroying property including businesses. Some persons reportedly died from the incident. Infractions such as these and others are making life unbearable for the people of the region and continue to invoke fears and concerns on what awaits the zone as the 2023 general elections draw near.
To boost the fight against insecurity, President Muhammadu Buhari last Tuesday approved deployment of high technology in the region. Imo state governor, Hope Uzodimma, who revealed this after a meeting with the President said the advanced surveillance equipment are to be delivered in no time to the region to enhance the fight without much collateral damage.
The promise of deployment of high technology for the insecurity fight in the zone is being received with mixed reactions. Investigation by The Guardian shows that though there is a general outcry for a permanent solution to the security challenges in the region, it should not come at extra cost. For instance, many believe that the activities of some security agents have either marred the fight or helped fuel it, adding that the gains inherent in the deployment of the high technology may not be realisable if not operated according to rules.
“Yes, look at the number of security check points on our highways and ask how these criminals still operate and go scot free. We have a situation where they have abdicated their responsibility while crimes fester. They target the innocent people rather than the criminals and pay little or no heed to intelligence and information gathering,” Eze Onwuegbu, a social critic based in Umuahia, Abia state observed.
Onwuegbu had lamented the amount of arms circulating in the region, blaming the situation on the failure of the federal government to give equal sense of belonging to the people. “When competence is no longer the issue in appointing people in authority, especially that of security, it becomes a problem. So, what has really happened is where security has been politicised such that the track record of accomplishments is no longer things to reckon with, rather we use religion and ethnicity. That is why security has collapsed in this country. It is very unfortunate and painful the way insecurity is escalating in the southeast. Security agents posted to work here and their heads have not helped matters and have continued to see everyone from this zone as not deserving to live,” he added.
The President, Cultural Credibility Development Initiative (CCDI), Chief Goddy Uwazuruike, said the failure of intelligence system by security forces has given rise to insecurity.
He said: “The menace of criminal gangs has increased such that if you have a nice car, you become a target. Now that public figures are being attacked, it becomes big news and we are calling on the government to step in. It is a failure of the intelligence system for the security forces to fold their arms and continue to watch. A good intelligence system will tell you where these people are. Those criminals are human beings and they leave marks wherever they strike. Those who attacked that convoy have their den around there. It is something the intelligence system will analyse and step on it. To continue to wait for report is a failure.”
On how the growing insecurity could impact the 2023 general elections in the region, a politician, Durueke Samuel noted that it had already started taking its toll on the elections, stressing that “some political activities that are usually carried out during Christmas seasons were not observed last season.”
“If you come to my area, Orlu (Imo state), you will discover our pains and sufferings. Many of our people did not return home. I do not know how they are going to participate in the coming elections with the dislocations and destruction that have come our way. We still live in fear and run from security operatives and non-state actors who dish out instructions at will and enforce them. It is a big challenge for my people. So what we are yearning for at the moment is survival and tranquility to enable us repossess our environment,” he stated.
Chief Donald Okereke, a stalwart of the Labour Party, however, feels that the rise in insecurity in the region would not affect the general elections, insisting that the people are yearning for change and would not be deterred by the scourge.
“Nigerians are ready to take back their country and would stop at nothing in doing so. Insecurity is everywhere. It has affected productivity and good governance of the country. Mis-governance also affects the Southeast region. So, I don’t see them going back. I don’t see them submitting to the threats of these men of the underworld whose motives are to hold all of us to ransom.
“If you look at the way people are rushing to the INEC offices to pick their voter’s card, you will agree with me that the consciousness has been created and the people are already hooked to it. So I expect a similar response during the elections proper. Psychologically, what is happening could weigh down people but the zeal to excel is there,” he said.
PRO BỊAFRA AGITATOR’S THREATS
Days after the Nigerian Armed Forces launched a massive attack on and destroyed the shrines of Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and Eastern Security Network (ESN), a factional leader of the terrorist group, Simon Ekpa, has reiterated his threat to frustrate and stop the smooth conduct of the 2023 general elections in Igboland.
Troops in joint operations have in recent weeks sustained a massive onslaught on the terrorists and destroyed their strongholds across the southeast.
The Director Defence Media Operations, Major General Musa Danmadami, in a recent briefing confirmed that in one of the operations, after a gun duel, the military destroyed IPOB shrines as well as posters with the inscription “No Election.”
In a video, Ekpa, who operates from Finland, threatened to impose a curfew and ban election in 31 ‘Biafra Provinces.’
The IPOB ‘publicist’ in the video broadcast said that the curfew would be implemented at all federal roads leading to Okigwe, Owerri, Orlu, Abakaliki and Enugu metropolis, prior, during and after the presidential election, billed for February 25.
Ekpa, in the 8-minute TikTok video, threatened that IPOB ‘militia’ will not allow the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, to smoothly conduct the presidential election in the South East.
He threatened that there would not be elections in Enugu, Aba, Owerri, Orlu, Awka, Auchi, Benin, Warri, Asaba, Umuahia, Okigwe, Onitsha and across the entire 31 ‘provinces’ of ‘Biafraland.’
Ekpa, in the video clip, further said: “On the 23rd of February 2023, there will be a sit-at-home. On the 24th of February, there will be a lockdown in the entire Biafra territory. On the 25th of February, Biafraland will be under lock and key.
“On the 26th of February, Biafraland will be sealed and under lock and key. The same thing will happen on the 27th and 28th of February too. The particular dates are however subjects to review, as they can be called off at any time.”
IN SOUTH WEST
The Inspector General of Police (IGP), Usman Baba has said that some separatist agitators under the aegis of Oduduwa Nation are amassing weapons in an attempt to disrupt the February 25 and March 11 general elections in the South-West geopolitical zone.
The IGP disclosed this during a meeting with strategic police managers at the Force Headquarters in Abuja on Monday.
He also lamented that small arms and light weapons are being trafficked to advance political violence, political extremism and intolerance, while cyberbullying for political ends is on the rise daily.
Secessionist agitation gained prominence in the South-West geopolitical zone mid-2021. The agitation was champion by Yoruba Nation campaigner, Sunday Adeyemo popularly known as Sunday Igboho.
However, the agitation slowed down with the raid of Igboho’s Ibadan residence by the Department of State Services on July 1, 2021. The agitator later escaped to Benin Republic where he was detained by the security agents in the francophone West African country. He was later released on bail but has not returned to Nigeria.
There have been pockets of agitations by Yoruba Nation protesters of late but the police have warned that no disturbance of public peace would be allowed.
Addressing police officers on Monday, the IGP said, “As you are aware, some crimes of national security importance could undermine our efforts towards entrenching a peaceful electioneering process, if not adequately curtailed.
“These include banditry and terrorism which has ravaged many communities in the North-west and North-Central with adverse effects on the economic and social well-being of the residents.
“Similarly, violent secessionist campaigns by IPOB/ESN members have been targeted at various symbols of democratic governance including INEC assets, police stations and personnel as well as other security agencies and Federal Government infrastructures, all in an effort to disrupt the 2023 general elections in the South East geopolitical zone.
“Other major crimes are the growing activities of the Oduduwa Nation Agitators who, from intelligence sources, have been attempting to amass weapons and mobilise other resources towards disrupting the peace, security and electoral process in the South-West geopolitical zone.”
The IGP charged the officers to conduct themselves “within the dictates of the Electoral Act and other laws”, while he assured Nigerians of the commitment of the police to a peaceful, secure, free, fair and credible elections.
BANDITS IN NORTHWEST
In September, several Nigerian social media accounts known for their pro-military slant began reporting that a notorious bandit named Turji Gidde had been captured. It appeared to be a rare and dramatic victory in the military’s renewed campaign against the criminal insurgents who have terrorized swathes of northwestern Nigerian in recent years.
The problem is that Turji Gidde does not exist. His name may be an amalgamation of two of the northwest’s most powerful bandits, Kachalla Turji and Dogo Gide. Or it may be a misspelling of one of Turji’s many noms de guerre. In any event, neither Turji nor Dogo Gide was captured. In fact, only a few leaders of the more than 120 gangs operating in the northwest have been killed or captured since the start of recent operations. As we have seen during our recent field research in Nigeria’s northwest, banditry remain as deadly as ever, and may even be evolving in dangerous ways.
Northwestern Nigeria is suffering from an intense, destabilizing conflict that has flown under the radar of international policymakers and analysts. Since the mid-2010s, fighting has killed at least 12,000 (the true toll is likely much higher), displaced over a million people, and led to the shuttering of hundreds of schools and colleges across the region. The Nigerian state is all but absent from large swathes of the northwest, with even the federal highways unsafe for government officials and their armed escorts. The bandits number in the low 10,000s, making them more numerous than the country’s jihadists, and they have developed surprising fighting capacity, shooting down military jets and breaching the Nigerian Defence Academy.
Yet when it comes to insecurity in Nigeria (of which there is no shortage) the overwhelming priority for Western policymakers is northeastern Nigeria, site of the Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province insurgencies. These are serious threats too. The conflict in the northeast is driving an acute humanitarian crisis, tying up a significant chunk of Nigeria’s security resources, and adding to fears of a regional metastasization of Salafi-jihadism. But the conflict in the northwest should not be ignored simply because it doesn’t fit within the still-potent “Global War on Terror” paradigm and because its participants are not broadcasting their propaganda on global jihadi channels.
Part of the challenge is that the militancy in northwest Nigeria does not fit neatly within any of the paradigms through which Western observers generally frame African conflicts. Indeed, the term “bandits” is itself one that may sound romantic or quaint to many Westerners, obscuring the intense nature of the conflict. The banditry crisis contains elements of criminality, interethnic conflict, terrorism, and warlordism, and, what’s more, the salience of these various dimensions changes over time and between individual actors. Many Nigerians, even those directly affected by the conflict, do not have a clear idea of who the “bandits” are and what they hope to achieve.
The Nigerian government is currently engaged in a renewed crackdown on banditry, deploying soldiers, cutting off cellphone networks and promoting anti-bandit vigilantes. Yet this campaign risks inadvertently strengthening the bandits and giving them a newfound unity. A more effective campaign to defeat banditry requires a better understanding of the factors that drive it.
Today’s banditry crisis is the culmination of years of deteriorating political, economic, and security conditions in northern Nigeria. As a rural region and hub of trans-Saharan trade, what is today northwestern Nigeria has experienced cattle rustling and highway robbery since pre-colonial times. But as recently as fifteen years ago, crime remained a generally non-lethal problem in the region and bandits were few in number. Since then, however, the presence of armed gangs has grown dramatically as a result of increased tensions between farmers and herders and the proliferation of small arms and light weapons throughout West Africa, exacerbated by Libya’s collapse in 2011.
Land-use conflict in northwest Nigeria has increased dramatically in recent decades, driving a wedge between Hausa and Fulani communities. Though the divisions are often blurry in practice, farmers belong largely to the Hausa community and herders to the Fulani. Environmental degradation and population growth have helped fuel a sense of resource scarcity, though residents and community leaders mostly identify government corruption in apportioning land titles and settling of disputes as factors that pushed both farmers and herders to begin arming themselves. As a result, between 2011 and 2014, an increasing number of herders found themselves joining criminal gangs or forming pastoralist militias. Some were motivated by the need for self-defense, others by sentiments of ethnic solidarity, and still others, including non-Fulani, by simple economic opportunism. The line between criminal gangs and Fulani militias has long since blurred, with all the militants colloquially lumped together under the label of “bandits.”
The bandits do not constitute an ethnonationalist insurgency, or a coherent insurgency of any sort Rather than unite and turn their guns on the state, they spend a good deal of time fighting each other. They compete for wealth and status and many of them lord over swathes of the countryside as de facto sovereigns. Gangs often mobilize recruits and appeal to communities by espousing anti-government rhetoric, particularly related to the grievances of Fulani herders, but they lack a coherent political agenda and most show no compunction about brutally raiding their fellow herders. Despite the geographic proximity to jihadist hotspots such as northeastern Nigeria and southern Niger, the conflict in the northwest remains distinct from any jihadist insurgency for now. Multiple bandits have cooperated with jihadists, accepting weapons and tactical guidance, but our research suggests the cooperation is less meaningful than many observers assume. The majority of bandits have shown little interest in adopting a jihadist ideology or political economy. For the time being, most bandits are driven less by any ideology than by wealth and power. That has not made them any easier to defeat.
The government’s militarized response has further exacerbated the banditry crisis. Since the launch of Operation Harbin Kunama (“scorpion sting”) in 2016, the Nigerian military has intermittently conducted anti-banditry campaigns in the northwest. These have often produced brief periods of calm as bandits are forced to relocate and regroup. But despite these temporary gains, military operations have also contributed to herders’ resentment and, by extension, aided the bandits’ recruitment. Lacking knowledge of the local communities, military units often get their intelligence from local officials or vigilantes — who often harbor their own grudges and prejudices. When bandits abandon their camps under military pressure, they often use villagers or herders as human shields. However cynical this is, when government forces attack and produce collateral damage, it nonetheless creates newly aggrieved civilians, some of whom are recruited by the bandits. A classified 2019 report commissioned by the Zamfara state government claimed that soldiers and security agents have engaged in arbitrary executions, disappearances, and cattle rustling in the northwest, with the report recommending 10 military officers in particular for court martial.
Non-state actors killed 4,545 people, kidnapped 4,611 in 2022
Some minutes into January 1, 2022, Otu Inyang, a chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC), was shot dead at Ikot Udoma, Eket LGA, Akwa Ibom state. Inyang was said to have been killed while he was heading home after a crossover service in the church. This marked the beginning of Nigeria’s security misfortune for the year, as gun-toting non-state actors unleashed terror on Nigerians and other nationals residing in the country in 2022.
According to data sourced from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and National Security Tracker (NST), analysed by TheCable Index, the data and research arm of TheCable, 4,545 people were killed by non-state actors, while 4,611 others were kidnapped in 2022.
Further analysis by TheCable Index revealed that an average of 12 people were killed, 13 people kidnapped daily in violent attacks reported in the media from January to December 2022.
It is imperative to state that in the process of extracting data for this report, TheCable Index excluded the killings carried out by security operatives and the death of suspected criminals like kidnappers, armed robbers, bandits, and Boko Haram/ISWAP fighters.
For instance, during the course of the year, officers of the Nigeria Air Force reportedly carried out a series of airstrike operations against bandits and other terrorist groups in the northern part of the country and killed many insurgents.
In the south-east, soldiers also reportedly killed a number of suspected members of the proscribed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB). TheCable Index excluded such killings from this data report.
The media reports sourced from NST analysed for this report have been compiled here.
MAJOR POINTS TO NOTE FOR THIS REVIEW
4,545 people were killed in Nigeria in 2022.
4,616 people were kidnapped in Nigeria in 2022.
3,972 civilians, 202 military personnel, 186 police officers, 154 vigilantes, 14 security guards and 17 others were reportedly killed in the period under review.
Others in this context are officials of the Federal Road Service Corps (FRSC), The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), Nigeria Immigration Service (NIS), Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA), and Nigerian Correctional Service (NCS).
Killings were reported in all the months of 2022; January had the highest number of reported deaths with 836, while August had the least with 131.
Niger state had the highest reported death toll — 604.
Ekiti state recorded the lowest reported death toll — 4.
Kaduna state recorded the highest number of people abducted with 1,166.
Adamawa state recorded the lowest number of people abducted with 2.
In terms of the reported death toll, the northern part of the country recorded the highest with 3,574 deaths, representing 78.7 per cent of the total reported death toll across the country; while the southern region recorded 971 deaths, representing 21.3 per cent.
On zonal level, north-west recorded the highest number of reported death toll with 1,524 deaths, followed by north-central with 1,390; north-east had 660; south-east recorded 449; south-south had 276; while south-west recorded the least figure with 246.
In terms of the reported abductions, the northern part of the country recorded the highest number of people abducted by non-state actors with 3,902, representing 84.5 percent of the total reported across the country. The southern region recorded 714 reported abductions, representing 15.5 percent.
Boko Haram/ISWAP firefighters, bandits, unknown gunmen, robbers, kidnappers, cultists, and gunmen were the non-state actors who killed Nigerians the most in 2022.
NIGER, ZAMFARA, KADUNA, BENUE, PLATEAU — THE 5 HOTBEDS OF KILLINGS IN NIGERIA
Based on the analysed data, TheCable Index observed that Niger, Zamfara, Kaduna, Benue and Plateau states accounted for 40 per cent of the reported killings in the period under review.
Niger recorded the highest number of reported killings with 604, followed by Zamfara with 565 deaths. Kaduna had 507 deaths and Benue recorded 333 deaths.
Further analysis showed that the aforementioned states recorded a high number of reported killings because of the activities of Boko Haram/ISWAP fighters, bandits and farmer-herder clashes.
The data also showed that Ekiti state recorded the least number of deaths by non-state actors with four casualties, closely followed by Adamawa with five casualties. Gombe had 11 deaths, while Kano recorded 14 casualties.
CIVILIANS BEAR THE BRUNT OF INSECURITY IN NIGERIA
Out of the reported deaths in the year, 3,972 civilians were killed by non-state actors, representing 87.4 percent of the total deaths.
For this report, quasi-security outfits established by state governments, LGAs and communities were classified as vigilantes. They were not spared by non-state actors in the period under review as 154 of them were killed. Those employed as security guards for individuals and organisations had their share onslaught as 14 of them were killed in 2022.
Security operatives who are at the warfront in the fight against insurgency recorded some casualties in the period under review as 202 soldiers and 186 police officers were reportedly killed.
BLOODY JANUARY
According to the analysed data, the month of January was the bloodiest in the year 2022 as 836 people were killed by gunmen, representing 18.4 per cent of the total reported deaths.
Non-state actors unleashed terror in many Nigerian communities in the month of January. For instance, In Zamfara, bandits killed over 200 residents of Anka and Bukkuyum LGAs in January – an incident that led to the displacement of about 10,000 people. The bandits stormed the Zamfara communities after officers of the Nigeria Air Force (NAF) conducted air strikes on their hideouts.
In the monthly casualty figure, January was followed by March with 578 deaths, while April recorded 470 deaths.
Credit: Guardian Nigeria, DailyTrust, Channel Tv And TheCable
