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SBM Intelligence, a research firm that analyses West African geopolitical and economic situation, has released its projection of the forthcoming 2023 presidential election in Nigeria.
The firm, predicts the states that will be won by the top three candidates in the election, namely:
Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP).
2023 presidential election set to be the tightest, says SBM
Projection: 2023 presidential elections pic.twitter.com/YIJwleMKkT— SBM Intelligence (@sbmintelligence) December 15, 2022
According to the SBM, the 2023 presidential election is set to be the tightest in Nigeria’s history. As such, the research firm predicts that there may be a run-off, the first in the country’s history.
Peter Obi
SECURITY: The Atiku, Kwankwaso, Obi, Tinubu roadmaps
Nevertheless, the SBM gave a caveat that “a week is a long time in politics”.
*List of states Tinubu may win, SBM projects:
Yobe
Borno
Zamfara
Katsina
Jigawa
Niger
Nasarawa
Kogi
Oyo
Ondo
Ekiti
Lagos
Ogun
*List of states Atiku may win, SBM projects:
Sokoto
Kaduna
Bauchi
Gombe
Adamawa
Taraba
FCT
Osun
Delta
Bayelsa
Rivers
Akwa Ibom
*List of states Peter Obi may win, SBM projects
Plateau
Edo
Abia
Imo
Enugu
Anambra
Ebonyi
Cross River
Benue
*List of states that are too close to call
Kebbi
Kano
Kwara
From the foregoing, SBM’s projection indicates that Tinubu may win 13 states while Atiku may win 12. Obi may take nine states, according to the projection.
