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A new report has revealed that violent conflict across the northern part of the country is deepening poverty and weakening the ability of households to recover from economic shocks.
The report, titled “Insecurity, Livelihoods and Welfare in Northern Nigeria,” identified three major forms of insecurity affecting the region: Boko Haram/ISWAP insurgency in the North-East, farmer-herder conflicts in the North-Central, and banditry and kidnapping in the North-West.
The findings were unveiled on Thursday in Abuja during a high-level webinar convened by the Chronic Poverty Advisory Network of the Institute of Development Studies, United Kingdom; the Development Research and Projects Centre; and the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office-supported Strengthening Peace and Resilience in Nigeria project.
The Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction, Dr Bernard Doro, opened and closed the session, reflecting on the implications of the findings for the ministry’s One Humanitarian–One Poverty Response System policy.
Presenting the report, CPAN Deputy Director, Dr Vidya Diwakar, said the study explored the relationship between insecurity and household welfare using data from the Nigeria Living Standards Survey 2022/23, the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey 2024, Armed Conflict Location and Event Data from 2010 to 2025, and extensive fieldwork conducted by dRPC.
The report stated that “Households in the North-East affected by Boko Haram and ISWAP attacks recorded between eight and 14 per cent lower expenditure per adult equivalent when violent incidents occurred within two years before the survey.
“Conflict-related debt accumulated since 2009 was also associated with an additional expenditure loss of between eight and 13 per cent.”
The study found that “farmer-herder clashes had the most severe impact on near-poor households in the North-Central zone, resulting in a 14 per cent drop in expenditure at the 60th percentile, the largest single welfare effect recorded in the study.
“In the North-West, banditry and kidnapping were linked to expenditure losses ranging from four to 11 per cent, particularly among moderately poor households.”
Despite the challenges, the report identified livelihood diversification as the most effective strategy for building resilience and escaping chronic poverty.
According to the findings, combining farming, non-farming and enterprise-based income-generating activities emerged as “the single most consistent protective factor across all three conflict types.”
However, the report noted that “only 13 per cent of household heads in Northern Nigeria were currently pursuing diversified income opportunities.”
The study also found that education strengthens households’ ability to diversify income sources, although the benefits remain weaker among women- and youth-headed households, which account for 28.9 per cent of households in the region.
In their review of the study, three discussants – Dr Ukoha Ukiwo, Team Lead of SPRiNG; Dr Julie Sanda, Director of the Plateau State Peace Building Agency; and Abba Waziri of the Office of the SSA to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on Chieftaincy Matters, all drew attention to the importance of the peace work nexus for re-building livelihoods and supporting household diversification
The discussants stressed that rebuilding livelihoods and expanding economic opportunities are critical to reducing vulnerability and promoting long-term peace in conflict-affected communities.
Particular emphasis was placed on training traditional rulers and community leaders to play stronger roles in peace-building initiatives.
Speaking at the close of the webinar, Executive Director of dRPC, Dr Judith-Ann Walker, thanked the FCDO for supporting the research and commended the Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction for engaging with evidence-based policy recommendations.
She also praised the ministry’s commitment to implementing the OHOPRS framework, which is built on what she described as “one system, one register and one pathway.”
The minister pledged continued collaboration between government and stakeholders and challenged researchers to generate evidence that would improve targeting, sequencing and graduation pathways under the OHOPRS framework, particularly for women and young people who are often excluded from poverty reduction interventions.
