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The International Monetary Fund has revised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026, raising it to 4.4 per cent from 4.2 per cent projected in October 2025.
The revised outlook was published in the IMF’s January 2026 update of the World Economic Outlook and unveiled on Monday.
The Fund’s upgrade to Nigeria’s outlook is part of a wider assessment of global economic conditions, which the Fund expects to remain relatively stable in the coming years.
Overall, the data suggest that Nigeria’s improved outlook is consistent with gradual but widespread economic strengthening across the region rather than an isolated revision.
Nigeria’s revised forecast builds on a period of significant economic adjustment marked by policy reforms and efforts to restore macroeconomic balance.
In its October 2025 World Economic Outlook, the IMF had projected Nigeria’s 2026 growth at 4.2 per cent, reflecting lingering concerns around inflation, fiscal pressures, and structural constraints.
Since then, policymakers have continued to pursue reforms aimed at strengthening fiscal coordination, stabilising the macroeconomic environment, and improving productivity across key sectors.
The IMF has repeatedly emphasised the importance of structural reforms in driving sustainable growth across emerging and developing economies, including Nigeria.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, regional growth was revised upward from 4.0 per cent to 4.1 per cent for 2025, and from 4.3 per cent to 4.4 per cent for 2026, indicating a broadly shared recovery trend.
It projects global growth of 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027, broadly in line with the estimated 3.3 per cent outturn for 2025.
According to the Fund, this stability reflects a balance between headwinds from shifting trade policies and tailwinds from technology-driven investment, including artificial intelligence, alongside accommodative financial conditions.
Global inflation is expected to continue easing, with headline inflation projected to decline from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 3.8 per cent in 2026, and further to 3.4 per cent in 2027.
